NAG CL Interface
g13nbc (cp_pelt_user)
1
Purpose
g13nbc detects change points in a univariate time series, that is, the time points at which some feature of the data, for example the mean, changes. Change points are detected using the PELT (Pruned Exact Linear Time) algorithm and a user-supplied cost function.
2
Specification
void |
g13nbc (Integer n,
double beta,
Integer minss,
double k,
void |
(*costfn)(Integer ts,
Integer nr,
const Integer r[],
double c[],
Nag_Comm *comm, Integer *info),
|
|
Integer *ntau,
Integer tau[],
Nag_Comm *comm,
NagError *fail) |
|
The function may be called by the names: g13nbc or nag_tsa_cp_pelt_user.
3
Description
Let denote a series of data and denote a set of ordered (strictly monotonic increasing) indices known as change points with and . For ease of notation we also define . The change points, , split the data into segments, with the th segment being of length and containing .
Given a user-supplied cost function,
g13nbc solves
where
is a penalty term used to control the number of change points. This minimization is performed using the PELT algorithm of
Killick et al. (2012). The PELT algorithm is guaranteed to return the optimal solution to
(1) if there exists a constant
such that
for all
4
References
Chen J and Gupta A K (2010) Parametric Statistical Change Point Analysis With Applications to Genetics Medicine and Finance Second Edition Birkhäuser
Killick R, Fearnhead P and Eckely I A (2012) Optimal detection of changepoints with a linear computational cost Journal of the American Statistical Association 107:500 1590–1598
5
Arguments
-
1:
– Integer
Input
-
On entry: , the length of the time series.
Constraint:
.
-
2:
– double
Input
-
On entry:
, the penalty term.
There are a number of standard ways of setting
, including:
- SIC or BIC
- AIC
- Hannan-Quinn
where
is the number of parameters being treated as estimated in each segment. The value of
will depend on the cost function being used.
If no penalty is required then set . Generally, the smaller the value of the larger the number of suggested change points.
-
3:
– Integer
Input
-
On entry: the minimum distance between two change points, that is .
Constraint:
.
-
4:
– double
Input
-
On entry:
, the constant value that satisfies equation
(2). If
exists, it is unlikely to be unique in such cases, it is recommened that the largest value of
, that satisfies equation
(2), is chosen. No check is made that
is the correct value for the supplied cost function.
-
5:
– function, supplied by the user
External Function
-
The cost function,
.
costfn must calculate a vector of costs for a number of segments.
The specification of
costfn is:
void |
costfn (Integer ts,
Integer nr,
const Integer r[],
double c[],
Nag_Comm *comm, Integer *info)
|
|
-
1:
– Integer
Input
-
On entry: a reference time point.
-
2:
– Integer
Input
-
On entry: number of segments being considered.
-
3:
– const Integer
Input
-
On entry: time points which, along with
ts, define the segments being considered,
for
.
-
4:
– double
Output
-
On exit: the cost function,
, with
where
and
.
It should be noted that if
for any value of
then it will be true for all values of
. Therefore the inequality need only be tested once per call to
costfn.
-
5:
– Nag_Comm *
Pointer to structure of type Nag_Comm; the following members are relevant to
costfn.
- user – double *
- iuser – Integer *
- p – Pointer
The type Pointer will be
void *. Before calling
g13nbc you may allocate memory and initialize these pointers with various quantities for use by
costfn when called from
g13nbc (see
Section 3.1.1 in the Introduction to the NAG Library CL Interface).
-
6:
– Integer *
Input/Output
-
On entry: .
On exit: set
info to a nonzero value if you wish
g13nbc to terminate with
NE_USER_STOP.
Note: costfn should not return floating-point NaN (Not a Number) or infinity values, since these are not handled by
g13nbc. If your code inadvertently
does return any NaNs or infinities,
g13nbc is likely to produce unexpected results.
-
6:
– Integer *
Output
-
On exit: , the number of change points detected.
-
7:
– Integer
Output
-
On exit: the first
elements of
tau hold the location of the change points. The
th segment is defined by
to
, where
and
.
The remainder of
tau is used as workspace.
-
8:
– Nag_Comm *
-
The NAG communication argument (see
Section 3.1.1 in the Introduction to the NAG Library CL Interface).
-
9:
– NagError *
Input/Output
-
The NAG error argument (see
Section 7 in the Introduction to the NAG Library CL Interface).
6
Error Indicators and Warnings
- NE_ALLOC_FAIL
-
Dynamic memory allocation failed.
See
Section 3.1.2 in the Introduction to the NAG Library CL Interface for further information.
- NE_BAD_PARAM
-
On entry, argument had an illegal value.
- NE_INT
-
On entry, .
Constraint: .
On entry, .
Constraint: .
- NE_INTERNAL_ERROR
-
An internal error has occurred in this function. Check the function call and any array sizes. If the call is correct then please contact
NAG for assistance.
See
Section 7.5 in the Introduction to the NAG Library CL Interface for further information.
- NE_NO_LICENCE
-
Your licence key may have expired or may not have been installed correctly.
See
Section 8 in the Introduction to the NAG Library CL Interface for further information.
- NE_USER_STOP
-
User requested termination.
7
Accuracy
Not applicable.
8
Parallelism and Performance
g13nbc is not threaded in any implementation.
g13nac performs the same calculations for a cost function selected from a provided set of cost functions. If the required cost function belongs to this provided set then
g13nac can be used without the need to provide a cost function routine.
10
Example
This example identifies changes in the scale parameter, under the assumption that the data has a gamma distribution, for a simulated dataset with observations. A penalty, of is used and the minimum segment size is set to . The shape parameter is fixed at across the whole input series.
The cost function used is
where
is a shape parameter that is fixed for all segments and
.
10.1
Program Text
10.2
Program Data
10.3
Program Results
This example plot shows the original data series and the estimated change points.