G02GPF allows prediction from a generalized linear model fit via
G02GAF,
G02GBF,
G02GCF or
G02GDF.
SUBROUTINE G02GPF ( |
ERRFN, LINK, MEAN, OFFSET, WEIGHT, N, X, LDX, M, ISX, IP, T, OFF, WT, S, A, B, COV, VFOBS, ETA, SEETA, PRED, SEPRED, IFAIL) |
INTEGER |
N, LDX, M, ISX(M), IP, IFAIL |
REAL (KIND=nag_wp) |
X(LDX,M), T(*), OFF(*), WT(*), S, A, B(IP), COV(IP*(IP+1)/2), ETA(N), SEETA(N), PRED(N), SEPRED(N) |
LOGICAL |
VFOBS |
CHARACTER(1) |
ERRFN, LINK, MEAN, OFFSET, WEIGHT |
|
A generalized linear model consists of the following elements:
(i) |
A suitable distribution for the dependent variable . |
(ii) |
A linear model, with linear predictor , where is a matrix of independent variables and a column vector of parameters. |
(iii) |
A link function between the expected value of and the linear predictor, that is . |
In order to predict from a generalized linear model, that is estimate a value for the dependent variable,
, given a set of independent variables
, the matrix
must be supplied, along with values for the parameters
and their associated variance-covariance matrix,
. Suitable values for
and
are usually estimated by first fitting the prediction model to a training dataset with known responses, using for example
G02GAF,
G02GBF,
G02GCF or
G02GDF. The predicted variable, and its standard error can then be obtained from:
where
is a vector of offsets and
, if the variance of future observations is not taken into account, and
otherwise. Here
indicates the diagonal elements of matrix
.
If required, the variance for the
th future observation,
, can be calculated as:
where
is a weight,
is the scale (or dispersion) parameter, and
is the variance function. Both the scale parameter and the variance function depend on the distribution used for the
, with:
Poisson |
, |
binomial |
, |
Normal |
|
gamma |
|
- 1: ERRFN – CHARACTER(1)Input
On entry: indicates the distribution used to model the dependent variable,
.
- The binomial distribution is used.
- The gamma distribution is used.
- The Normal (Gaussian) distribution is used.
- The Poisson distribution is used.
Constraint:
, , or .
- 2: LINK – CHARACTER(1)Input
On entry: indicates which link function to be used.
- A complementary log-log link is used.
- An exponent link is used.
- A logistic link is used.
- An identity link is used.
- A log link is used.
- A probit link is used.
- A reciprocal link is used.
- A square root link is used.
Details on the functional form of the different links can be found in the
G02 Chapter Introduction.
Constraints:
- if , , or ;
- otherwise , , , or .
- 3: MEAN – CHARACTER(1)Input
On entry: indicates if a mean term is to be included.
- A mean term, intercept, will be included in the model.
- The model will pass through the origin, zero-point.
Constraint:
or .
- 4: OFFSET – CHARACTER(1)Input
On entry: indicates if an offset is required.
- An offset must be supplied in OFF.
- OFF is not referenced.
Constraint:
or .
- 5: WEIGHT – CHARACTER(1)Input
On entry: if
indicates if weights are used, otherwise
WEIGHT is not referenced.
- No weights are used.
- Weights are used and must be supplied in WT.
Constraint:
if , or .
- 6: N – INTEGERInput
On entry: , the number of observations.
Constraint:
.
- 7: X(LDX,M) – REAL (KIND=nag_wp) arrayInput
On entry: must contain the th observation for the th independent variable, for and .
- 8: LDX – INTEGERInput
On entry: the first dimension of the array
X as declared in the (sub)program from which G02GPF is called.
Constraint:
.
- 9: M – INTEGERInput
On entry: , the total number of independent variables.
Constraint:
.
- 10: ISX(M) – INTEGER arrayInput
On entry: indicates which independent variables are to be included in the model.
If , the th independent variable is included in the regression model.
Constraints:
- , for ;
- if , exactly values of ISX must be ;
- if , exactly IP values of ISX must be .
- 11: IP – INTEGERInput
On entry: the number of independent variables in the model, including the mean or intercept if present.
Constraint:
.
- 12: T() – REAL (KIND=nag_wp) arrayInput
Note: the dimension of the array
must be at least
if , and at least otherwise.
On entry: if
,
must contain the binomial denominator,
, for the
th observation.
Otherwise
T is not referenced.
Constraint:
if , , for .
- 13: OFF() – REAL (KIND=nag_wp) arrayInput
-
Note: the dimension of the array
must be at least
if , and at least otherwise.
On entry: if
,
must contain the offset
, for the
th observation.
Otherwise
OFF is not referenced.
- 14: WT() – REAL (KIND=nag_wp) arrayInput
-
Note: the dimension of the array
must be at least
if and , and at least otherwise.
On entry: if
and
,
must contain the weight,
, for the
th observation.
If the variance of future observations is not included in the standard error of the predicted variable,
WT is not referenced.
Constraint:
if and , ., for .
- 15: S – REAL (KIND=nag_wp)Input
On entry: if
or
and
, the scale parameter,
.
Otherwise
S is not referenced and
.
Constraint:
if or and , .
- 16: A – REAL (KIND=nag_wp)Input
On entry: if
,
A must contain the power of the exponential.
If
,
A is not referenced.
Constraint:
if , .
- 17: B(IP) – REAL (KIND=nag_wp) arrayInput
On entry: the model parameters,
.
If
,
must contain the mean parameter and
the coefficient of the variable contained in the
th independent
X, where
is the
th positive value in the array
ISX.
If
,
must contain the coefficient of the variable contained in the
th independent
X, where
is the
th positive value in the array
ISX.
- 18: COV() – REAL (KIND=nag_wp) arrayInput
On entry: the upper triangular part of the variance-covariance matrix, , of the model parameters. This matrix should be supplied packed by column, i.e., the covariance between parameters and , that is the values stored in and , should be supplied in
, for and .
Constraint:
the matrix represented in
COV must be a valid variance-covariance matrix.
- 19: VFOBS – LOGICALInput
On entry: if , the variance of future observations is included in the standard error of the predicted variable (i.e., ), otherwise .
- 20: ETA(N) – REAL (KIND=nag_wp) arrayOutput
On exit: the linear predictor, .
- 21: SEETA(N) – REAL (KIND=nag_wp) arrayOutput
On exit: the standard error of the linear predictor, .
- 22: PRED(N) – REAL (KIND=nag_wp) arrayOutput
On exit: the predicted value, .
- 23: SEPRED(N) – REAL (KIND=nag_wp) arrayOutput
On exit: the standard error of the predicted value, . If could not be calculated, then G02GPF returns , and is set to .
- 24: IFAIL – INTEGERInput/Output
-
On entry:
IFAIL must be set to
,
. If you are unfamiliar with this parameter you should refer to
Section 3.3 in the Essential Introduction for details.
For environments where it might be inappropriate to halt program execution when an error is detected, the value
is recommended. If the output of error messages is undesirable, then the value
is recommended. Otherwise, because for this routine the values of the output parameters may be useful even if
on exit, the recommended value is
.
When the value is used it is essential to test the value of IFAIL on exit.
On exit:
unless the routine detects an error or a warning has been flagged (see
Section 6).
If on entry
or
, explanatory error messages are output on the current error message unit (as defined by
X04AAF).
Not applicable.
None.
The model
is fitted to a training dataset with five observations. The resulting model is then used to predict the response for two new observations.